This blogger has been consistently critical of Wendy, whose leadership challenge is like an Ealing Comedy.
Wendy’s announcement that she and her Scottish Parliamentary colleagues will support a referendum on Scotland’s independence, and campaign against, is hilarious - given that it has made Brown look like an even bigger fool than he has been since he became Labour Leader.
Maybe it’s because, with Brown’s powerbase collapsing, Wendy is the true leader of Labour in one of its only remaining heartlands. But even then, when is a heartland not a heartland?
Answer - when Labour is 14 points behind the leading major party in that area. With the Tories slowly climbing to 21% in Scotland in the latest YouGov poll for the Sun, just behind Labour on 26%, the SNP is on around 40% in Scotland.
That means the SNP has a 14 point lead in Scotland, as Wendy desperately scrambles to make an impact and Gordon denies that she said what she said, as his leadership and credibility ebbs away.
It’s a good thing for Gordon and Wendy that the Scottish Parliamentary elections were not last week, otherwise it would have been an even more crushing defeat for Labour.
Come 2010, we can only await scores of SNP Gains from Labour and at least 10 Conservative Gains. Good old Scots, have come back to their senses and will be rejecting Labour at long last!
Electoral Calculus’ Scotland pages shows the following seat changes with SNP 40%, Lab 26%, Con 21%, LD 10%. What with Sunderland Central as a Con Gain (now that Chris Mullin is stepping down), Morley & Outwood under threat and many Scottish seats up for grabs for the SNP, what an election night it will be…
|
Seat |
MP at 2005 |
CON |
LAB |
LIB |
SNP |
2005 |
2010 |
|
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill |
Tom Clarke |
11.73 |
50.49 |
4.41 |
32.99 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Glasgow South West |
Ian Davidson |
10.05 |
46.22 |
4.25 |
33.86 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Glasgow East |
David Marshall |
11.51 |
46.69 |
4.35 |
36.94 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Glasgow North East |
Michael Martin |
5.01 |
39.33 |
0.00 |
39.31 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Airdrie and Shotts |
Dr John Reid |
14.36 |
45.02 |
4.19 |
35.97 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Motherwell and Wishaw |
Frank Roy |
14.10 |
43.48 |
4.41 |
37.32 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath |
Gordon Brown |
15.14 |
44.09 |
4.78 |
35.40 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Rutherglen and Hamilton West |
Tommy McAvoy |
13.79 |
41.61 |
6.73 |
37.33 |
LAB |
LAB |
|
Dunbartonshire West |
John McFall |
11.66 |
37.94 |
5.29 |
44.32 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Glenrothes |
John MacDougall |
12.03 |
37.91 |
4.64 |
44.70 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East |
Rosemary McKenna |
12.02 |
37.81 |
5.46 |
44.11 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Paisley and Renfrewshire South |
Douglas Alexander |
13.76 |
38.58 |
6.46 |
40.65 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Livingston |
|
14.90 |
37.11 |
5.65 |
42.09 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Falkirk |
Eric Joyce |
14.75 |
36.86 |
5.87 |
42.26 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Glasgow Central |
Mohammad Sarwar |
12.30 |
34.22 |
6.52 |
40.89 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Inverclyde |
David Cairns |
15.28 |
36.75 |
6.22 |
41.39 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Glasgow North West |
John Robertson |
15.81 |
35.18 |
7.17 |
40.69 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow |
Adam Ingram |
15.70 |
34.74 |
6.07 |
42.50 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Dunfermline and West Fife |
Rachel Squire |
15.84 |
33.44 |
7.50 |
42.76 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Kilmarnock and Loudoun |
Des Browne |
15.70 |
33.27 |
4.09 |
46.57 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Dundee West |
James McGovern |
13.07 |
30.59 |
5.29 |
50.67 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Linlithgow and East Falkirk |
Michael Connarty |
16.54 |
33.69 |
5.61 |
43.92 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Midlothian |
David Hamilton |
14.70 |
31.50 |
13.56 |
39.96 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) |
Angus MacNeil |
8.54 |
23.32 |
3.14 |
64.88 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Glasgow South |
Tom Harris |
18.84 |
33.24 |
6.99 |
39.70 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Aberdeen North |
Frank Doran |
14.75 |
28.47 |
11.25 |
45.26 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Lanark and Hamilton East |
Jimmy Hood |
18.40 |
32.05 |
6.84 |
42.02 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Paisley and Renfrewshire North |
James Sheridan |
18.99 |
31.74 |
6.70 |
42.06 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Glasgow North |
Ann McKechin |
14.36 |
25.41 |
14.78 |
37.25 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Edinburgh East |
Gavin Strang |
16.63 |
26.04 |
11.76 |
44.37 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Ayrshire North and Arran |
Katy Clark |
23.49 |
29.93 |
6.03 |
40.07 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
East Lothian |
Anne Picking |
21.73 |
27.47 |
12.16 |
37.96 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Ayrshire Central |
Brian Donohoe |
27.27 |
32.44 |
5.89 |
33.86 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Dundee East |
Stewart Hosie |
17.17 |
22.23 |
4.17 |
56.08 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock |
Sandra Osborne |
28.15 |
31.36 |
5.16 |
34.71 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey |
Danny Alexander |
16.14 |
16.92 |
27.63 |
38.60 |
LIB |
SNP |
|
Aberdeen South |
Anne Begg |
22.60 |
22.70 |
20.79 |
33.50 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Dunbartonshire East |
Jo Swinson |
21.95 |
19.12 |
29.14 |
29.39 |
LIB |
SNP |
|
Edinburgh South West |
Alistair Darling |
29.15 |
25.79 |
8.40 |
35.90 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Edinburgh North and Leith |
Mark Lazarowicz |
24.94 |
20.24 |
16.52 |
37.19 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Renfrewshire East |
Jim Murphy |
34.85 |
29.91 |
6.70 |
28.38 |
LAB |
CON |
|
Ochil and South Perthshire |
Gordon Banks |
26.31 |
17.37 |
4.88 |
50.86 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Stirling |
Anne McGuire |
31.00 |
22.01 |
8.05 |
38.13 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross |
John Thurso |
16.07 |
6.93 |
37.79 |
38.48 |
LIB |
SNP |
|
Edinburgh South |
Nigel Griffiths |
29.79 |
19.23 |
19.62 |
30.75 |
LAB |
SNP |
|
Ross Skye and Lochaber |
Charles Kennedy |
15.49 |
4.48 |
46.04 |
33.02 |
LIB |
LIB |
|
Dumfries and Galloway |
Russell Brown |
39.48 |
27.12 |
3.07 |
29.90 |
LAB |
CON |
|
Orkney and Shetland |
Alistair Carmichael |
18.35 |
4.25 |
38.84 |
32.22 |
LIB |
LIB |
|
Gordon |
Malcolm Bruce |
22.84 |
6.22 |
32.36 |
38.42 |
LIB |
SNP |
|
Edinburgh West |
John Barrett |
24.83 |
5.59 |
36.86 |
32.24 |
LIB |
LIB |
|
Banff and Buchan |
Alex Salmond |
23.19 |
3.61 |
4.88 |
67.72 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Argyll and Bute |
Alan Reid |
28.82 |
8.43 |
23.85 |
38.60 |
LIB |
SNP |
|
Fife North East |
Sir Menzies Campbell |
24.39 |
3.83 |
39.44 |
31.58 |
LIB |
LIB |
|
Moray |
Angus Robertson |
27.17 |
6.42 |
7.05 |
59.10 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale |
David Mundell |
41.53 |
18.29 |
7.61 |
32.26 |
CON |
CON |
|
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine |
Sir Robert Smith |
32.62 |
3.94 |
33.64 |
29.67 |
LIB |
LIB |
|
Angus |
Michael Weir |
34.15 |
5.39 |
6.40 |
53.84 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Perth and North Perthshire |
Peter Wishart |
34.93 |
5.62 |
5.91 |
53.38 |
SNP |
SNP |
|
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk |
Michael Moore |
34.09 |
4.77 |
29.18 |
31.25 |
LIB |
CON |
Posted by Mountjoy
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