Update 10/05/08, 9.38pm : C 43%, L 39%, LD 16% in Crewe & Nantwich according to ICM for Mail on Sunday (Source: Iain Dale - hat tip: Andrew Allison).
Consistently, until recently, commentators have asked why the Conservatives aren’t racking up the leads that New Labour used to manage in the 1990s. Well, now the Tories clearly are!
YouGov for The Sun is reporting a 26 percentage point lead for the Conservatives (C 49%, L 23%, LD 17%). What this poll disguises is some remarkable leads amongst groups and areas:
- Not surprisingly a 21 point (50:29) lead in London and a 36 point (55 : 19) lead in the South, but
- A remarkable 19 (47 : 28 ) point lead in the NORTH and a 32 (53 : 21) point lead in Midlands / Wales.
- A 20 point lead (46 : 26) amongst C2DE social grade and a 31 point lead amongst ABC1 (52 : 21).
- A 26 point lead (49 : 24) amongst men and a 28 point lead amongst women (50 : 22).
- A 30 point lead amongst 18-34 year olds (51 : 21)
- A 16 point lead amongst 35-54 (43: 27) and a 32 point lead with over 55s (53 : 21)
If the Conservatives keep on working hard in the by-election and highlighting Brown’s dreadful governance, in particular the Brownian economic disasters in relation to the housing market, Northern Rock and especially his tax policy (10p, nuff said), then the seat should be winnable.
The Conservatives now have a 19 point lead in the North, of which Cheshire is part. Parts of the by-election constituency around Nantwich and in the rural areas are more traditionally Conservative but the real battleground will be in the town of Crewe itself where many (former) Labour voters have, for perhaps the first time in many decades (or even, if they are too young to remember the Thatcher governments), a real chance to make a difference.
(The interesting fact is that, if you enter the C 49%, L 23% and LD 17% figures into Electoral Calculus* - which even without Lib Dems tactically voting for Tory candidates when second placed to Labour - one of the seats that comes up is Crewe & Nantwich, Con 48%, Lab 34%, LD 11%, which suggests that the Conservatives are almost certain not just to win the seat but also to HOLD it in a general election with the current national lead).
* Even more pleasurable on these percentages on Electoral Calculus is the suggestion that Ed “So What?” Balls could lose his (new) Morley & Outwood seat to the Conservatives (‘Were you up for Balls?’ could be a common
question in the future, or ‘Were you up for Jowell?’, as the Jewel-in-the-Crown of South London, her Dulwich & West Norwood seat, could fall to the Tories).
9 May, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Labour will easily hold Crewe, the tories will be humiliated again. The people of Crewe remember what the tories done in the 80’s and the name dunwoody will bring another victory for labour here. There not going to elect a tory barista are they?
9 May, 2008 at 12:44 pm
The 51:21 lead amongst 18-24 year olds is quite staggering. Says a lot about the long-term future for politics in the UK.
9 May, 2008 at 7:33 pm
A visit to Crewe today convinced me that a Convervative win is a cert.
I have never heard so many grumbles about the state of the economy and
this government as I heard today.
Ms Dunwoody has got her work cut out to convince this once Labour
stronghold to vote Labour.
10 May, 2008 at 4:13 pm
I imagine the GLA results from Lambeth & Southwark will disprove the idea that Dulwich and West Norwood will fall. Similar predicted results, eg. Oxford East, are just stretching it to the point of stupidity when you consider the actual local election results here in mid-term do not even point to Tory victories in such places.
10 May, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Dulwich and West Norwood results, 2005:
Tessa Jowell Labour 19,059
Jonathan Mitchell Liberal Democrat 10,252
Kim Humphreys Conservative 9,200
It is not inconceivable that the Labour vote could fall enough and the Conservative vote increase enough to make this three way marginal a Tory seat!
10 May, 2008 at 9:10 pm
The poll to be published in the Mail on Sunday tomorrow shows a win for the Tories a week on Thursday. I am confident from my sources that we are going to win. The question is by what margin. I personally think it will not be by a large margin, but as the poll suggests, in a general election, there could be an altogether different result.
To Crewe Warrior I would say that the electorate have moved on from the perceived class warfare of the 1980s. What matters most to the people of Crewe at the moment is the strength of the economy, the abolition of the 10p tax rate, the state of our public services and who can offer us a better future. They will make their decision on who to vote for based on the criteria I have set out; not on what happened over 20 years ago.
Details of the poll can be found on Ian Dale’s Diary.