A day to go till Brown gets his long awaited kicking

Ordovicious has an interesting quote from the Grauniad showing the likely extent of the Labour losses.

This blog has been silent for the past few days due to intense election activity, with more to come in the next 2 days.

The next post should be some time on Friday.  Until then, with Labour trailing by between 14 – 18% in the polls and with a likely result in the Local Elections of CON 50%, LAB 20%, LD 20%, UKIP and BNP 5% between them, and the remainder amongst Greens etc, we await in anticipation some very interesting results…

Posted by Mountjoy

Alan Johnson pays it back

Now we hear that Alan Johnson has to pay back £1,675 that he took from a donor who was not even on the electoral register.  A simple check at the time would have showed this to be the case.

On the run up to local elections, with 26% in the polls, the last thing Labour needs is more sleaze.  But Labour is a party that is rotten to the core.

It is no wonder that Labour Councillors will fall like pins in a game of ten-pin bowling at the forthcoming elections.  It is no wonder that the Mayor of London, Red Ken, will be defeated by the charismatic descendent of 1920s Turkish politician Ali Kemal – Boris. 

This country needs a change and it needs it now. 

Posted by Mountjoy

The Tide is Turning and Gordon is the man behind it

What has it come to when a lifelong Labour voter tells a canvasser in a tough council estate in the West Midlands:

I’m never voting Labour again after what they’ve done.  I’m not so keen on your party, but I hate Gordon Brown and what he’s done to Labour with the 10p tax rate and the housing market.  I’m voting Tory this time – I want Labour out.

Gordon Brown has prevailed over not only the economic storm that has been gathering ever since he first got into the Treasury in 1997 but ironically did not appear on the horizon (apart from to a few wise sages) until this summer.  But also the dismantling and destruction of his own party.  How could he turn a landslide and a party reborn in 1997 to the shambles that we see now?

Because he won’t listen to anyone but his own coterie.  He makes policies that are good for his party in the short-term but disastrous for both the country and his party in the long-term.  No wonder it was almost, for a brief moment, conceivable that Harriet defected!

The tide is turning and next Thursday (or rather Friday morning) Labour are in for a severe and justified kicking.

Posted by Mountjoy

Harman defects!

See Harriet Harman’s website for an announcement of her defection. Hat tip to Guido for this info. I see her Wikipedia entry has been updated already …

Harriet Harman Resignation from the Labour Party: Letter to David Cameron and statement to Press
Letter to David Cameron

Rt. Hon.Gordon Brown M.P.
Leader of the Labour Party/Prime Miniser
House of Commons
London
SWIA OAA

25 April 2008

I have been a member of the Labour Party for over 30 years, and have served for 26 years in the Parliamentary Party, in a variety of backbench and front bench roles. This has usually been a great pleasure, and always a great privilege. It is therefore with much sadness that I write you this letter. But you are entitled to know the truth.

Under your leadership the Labour Party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything. It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda.

For the first 25 years of my time in the House, in common I imagine with the great majority of my colleagues, it never occurred to me to leave the Party, whatever its current vicissitudes. Ties of familiarity, of friendship, and above all of commitment to constituency supporters are for all of us very strong and incredibly difficult to break. But they cannot be the basis for living a lie – for continuing in an organisation when one no longer has respect for its leadership or understanding of its aims. I have come to that appreciation slowly and painfully and as a result of many things, some of which are set out below.

The first horrible realisation that I might not be able to continue came last year. My initial reaction was to suppress it.

You had come to office as Leader of the Party committed to break a solemn agreement we had with the country to give them a referendum on the European Consitution, now known cunningly as the Lisbon Treaty. For seven months you vacillated, and during that time we had several conversations. It was quite clear to me that you had no qualms in principle about tearing up this agreement, and that it was only the balance of prevailing political pressures which led you ultimately to stop short of doing so i.e You are a wimp, Gordo!
You also broke your promise to let me be Deputy Prime Minister and run the Deputy Leadership elections unopposed, just like you.

Of course I knew that you had put yourself in a position such that if you gave the referendum you would be breaking other promises you had given to colleagues, and on which many of them had counted in voting for you at the leadership election where of course you were the only contestant. But that I fear only made the position worse. The trouble with trying to face both ways is that you are likely to lose everybody’s confidence.

Aside from the rather significant issues of principle involved, you have of course paid a practical price for your easy promises. You are the first Prime Minister of this country to be completely upstaged on his recent visit to America, by his holiness the pope, who by all accounts is a doddery old man. Up to, and very much including,Tony Blair, your superior predecessor.

I have never done business with people who deliberately break contracts, and I knew last year that if you did not give the European Referendum, or make me Deputy Prime Minister I could no longer remain in a party under your leadership.

In fact you held back and I tried to put this ugly incident out of my mind and carry on. But the last year has been a series of shocks and disappointments. You have displayed to the full both the vacuity and the cynicism of your favourite slogan “When I wake up every morning, something or other”.

One day in January, I think a Wednesday or Thursday, you and Alistair Darling discovered that David Cameron was to make a speech on your disgraceful 10p tax cut. You wished toavoid the hassle. So without any consultation with anyone – experts, think tanks, the industry, even the Shadow Cabinet – you announced a visit to the US, which was so cack-handed you managed to be upstaged by His Holiness. The PR pressures had overridden any considerations of economic rationality or national interest, or even what would have been to others normal businesslike prudence.

Equally it seems that your hasty rejection of Fidel Castro as a Hero of the Left nuclear energy as a “last resort” was also driven by your PR imperatives rather than by other considerations. Many colleagues hope that that will be the subject of your next u-turn.

You regularly (I think on a pre-arranged PR grid or timetable) make apparent policy statements which are then revealed to have no intended content at all. They appear to be made merely to strike a pose, to contribute to an image.

You thus sometimes treat important subjects with the utmost frivolity. Examples are “Britishness”, “Anti-Terrorism”, most recently, mass promotion of people who are not even Labour Party Members like Digby Jones to the government (In view of your complete failure to consult with anyone, within the Party or outside it, on many of the matters I have touched on, or on many others, the latter was perhaps intended as a joke).

Of course I could go on – but I’m tired.

Believe it or not I have no personal animus against you. You have always been perfectly courteous in our dealings. You are intelligent and charming. As you know, however, I never supported you for the leadership of the Party – even when, after my preferred candidate (Myself) chickened out as she didn’t think she had a snowball’s chance in hell of winning. It was blindingly obvious that you were going to win. Although you have many positive qualities you have three, dithering, dourness and a terrible habit of picking your nose in public which in my view ought to exclude you from the position of national leadership to which you currently hold and which it is the presumed purpose of the Conservative Party to achieve.

Believing that as I do, I clearly cannot honestly remain in the Party. I do not intend to leave public life. On the contrary I am looking forward to joining another party with which I have found increasingly I am naturally in agreement and which has just acquired a leader I have always greatly admired, who I believe is entirely straightforward, goodlooking and who has a towering record, and a clear vision for the future of our country which I fully share.

Because my constituents, to whose interests of course I remain devoted, are entitled to know the full background, I am releasing this letter to the press.

Statement to press

“The more I thought about it the more I realised that the only logical and honest thing to do was both to leave the Labour Party and join the Conservative Party, with which I have found myself in practice regularly in agreement.”

Posted by Mountjoy

Tories surge ahead of lily-livered Labour a week before Locals and Mayoral election

According to YouGov in the Telegraph, the Conservatives are on 44%, Labour on 26% and Lib Dems on 17%.

That means that two things:

The Conservatives have an 18 point lead over Labour.

Labour has only 8 points between them and the Lib Dems.

And it effectively means that Labour are in for a very hard time in next week’s elections – quite rightly.  The euphoria of the Bliarite win in 1997 is long gone, and not even Gordon’s U-turn (although will it help anyone?) can avert the coming disaster for his Party.

Lily-livered Labour has not only betrayed people on low income with their 10p tax rate policy (which they quickly tried to shut down with an apparent U-turn), but Brownite economic policy and not just the credit crunch has led to the current housing market chaos.

The British people, the electorate, is showing great common sense by rejecting Brown.

Posted by Mountjoy

Red Ken says he’s still independent – is it any wonder?

Is it any wonder that Red Ken says he’s independent?

Then why doesn’t he just run as an independent?  He might stand better chance of winning.

But then he would have to work, rather than having the massive London Labour machine (what’s left of it) campaigning on his behalf – like the poor young bloke who was handing out Red Ken leaflets at Holborn tube station yesterday and not making much progress with the commuters.

Ken, you’re either Labour or independent – make up your mind.

Posted by Mountjoy

Gordon U-Turn if U Want to: call a general election

We should have a new song for Gordon, based on “it’s my party” – “It’s My U Turn and I’ll Try if I want to”.

Margaret Thatcher famously said, “U turn if u want to; the lady’s not for turning.” That got the wets sulking.

Today, there has apparently been a partial u-turn on the abolition of the 10p rate of income tax, in the form of compensation for some of those affected.

If the Government and principally Brown makes policy on the hoof and without consulting other people (Bliar wasn’t consulted, according to Rachel Sylvester in yesterday’s Telegraph), then it is not surprising it has to take U-turns. 

This shows the Prime Minister at his weakest.  His party and the people of the country have lost confidence in him.  It is time he calls a general election and puts himself and his party out of its misery.

It is time for him and his Government to disappear under the water like Virginia Woolf…

to look Government in the face,

always… to look Government in the face…

and to know it… for what it is…

at last to know it…

to love it… for what it is…

and then…

to put it away.

Britain…

 

always the years between us

always the years…

always the love…

always the hours…

 

Posted by Mountjoy. 

Is it any wonder that the Sun is backing Boris?

This blogger has made no secret of his support for Boris in the London Mayoral election.

I am currently in London for a few days on business, staying near Piccadilly, and was out last night in Chinatown for a meal.  The vibrancy of the centre of London is remarkable and is a phenomenon rarely seen elsewhere in the UK.  Other entertainment districts pale into insignificance compared to the West End.

However, what is worrying is that London has elected RedKen for the past 2 terms, first as an Independent Loony then as a Labour Loony.  Its very vibrancy is threatened by this dreadful mayor.

It is, therefore, no wonder, that the Sun, which supported Bliar in 1997 and pretty much at every election since, is backing Boris.  This is hopefully the first step on the road to a consistent and constant endorsement of the Conservatives, and a rejection of Brown’s failed Labour (which was Bliar’s failed Labour, but it is only now – apart from the Iraq war fiasco – that people are seeing what a failure Labour has been).

Time is ripe for the obliteration of Labour across the country and let’s start with London…

Posted by Mountjoy

Who do you think you are kidding, Mr Brown?

Brown said last night on the news that 3.2m families are better off since 1997.  Just who does he think he is kidding?

How can families or other people be better off when they are threatened by negative equity, can’t get a foothold on the housing ladder, are faced with rising food, gas, electricity (and everything else) prices?  The taxation burden is bad enough (despite the 20p ‘tax cut’ con), never mind the difficulties of other aspects of life, including schooling, the NHS, and of course getting about…

In my first trip to England for a few months, I have been delayed 1 and a half hours on a train outside Chester due to the wonderful railway system that Prescott has bequeathed to his successors. I will eventually get to London, with my evening curtailed. The loss of time under this waste of time Government is typical. It is time to get rid of them, but alas we have rather a long wait for that.

At least on May 1st in London and elsewhere the people who are supposedly “better off” can send a message … and a warning as to what will happen in May 2010 to this discredited Government.

Fortunately, there are some principled Labour MPs who have rebelled against the despicable abolition of the 10p tax band – true democracy in action – even just for a while. Brown is even more out of touch than any previous Prime Minister, so much so that I agree with Lord Desai that it shows how ‘good’ Blair was (and even he was nothing to write home about).

Posted by Mountjoy 5.19pm (heavily delayed)

Labour in meltdown: Now Clarke attacks Balls

Blogging will be light for the next few weeks as I will be away on business and helping in local elections in the West Midlands.  If I can get a mobile broadband modem sorted out, I might be able to access the blog a bit more often.

Charles Clarke,  who famously referred to Brown as having ‘psychological flaws’, has attacked Ed “So What?” Balls, accoding to BBC News. 

In the report, Clarke is quoted as saying that Balls is “well acquainted” with anonymous briefing, which Mr So What? accuses other Labour MPs of doing.

Clarke adds: “He should stop attacking others anonymously or in code and look to his own performance and record.”

Well, let’s see.  Balls has been a poor Education Secretary and he doesn’t think tax rises, including the despicable 10p tax band abolition, is an issue. 

Clarke hits the nail on the head, as his Party is in meltdown and about to lose hundreds of seats – and the London mayoralty – to the Conservatives.

Who ever said that Labour was the natural party of Government must have been reading Lewis Carroll.

Posted by Mountjoy 1.23pm

It just can’t get any worse for Brown…? Oh Y – E – S!

The YouGov poll in the Sunday Times gave the Conservatives a 16 point lead (44: 28), but what is masked by the headline figures are the following mouthwatering (or mouthdrying if you are Labour) statistics on the Tory lead:

·         13 point lead amongst men (42 : 29)

·         TWENTY point lead amongst women (47 : 27)

·         5 points ahead amongst 35-54 (39 : 34)

·         TWENTY-EIGHT amongst 55 + (50 : 22)

·         FIFTEEN point lead amongst 18-34 year olds (43 : 28), who will be most affected by the credit crunch

·         20 point lead amongst ABC1 (46 : 26)

·         ELEVEN point lead amongst C2DE (41 : 30) – proving Labour isn’t the party of the working class any more

·         17 point lead in London (48 : 31),

·         TWENTY-NINE (52 : 23) in rest of South

·         TWENTY-NINE  (50 : 21) in Midlands & Wales

·         And LEVEL PEGGING in the Labour Heartlands of the North, which will be pretty badly affected by the housing market problems (as is the Midlands).

·         Scotland is the only place where Labour is ahead of the Conservatives, by 15 points (20 : 35) but the other parties (mostly SNP) are not far behind Labour on 31.  Tactical voting in Scotland anyone ?  (SNP voting Tory in Lab/Con marginals; Tories voting SNP in Lab/SNP marginals?)

It just can’t get any worse for Brown …?

But it will J

For sure, 2008 is like 1979: The Iron Chancellor who became the Rusty Prime Minister

Recently, I made it clear that Brown clings onto power Mugabe like.  He was self-appointed, and no one in the Labour party has the guts to depose Brown – if they did, they might have a better chance electorally.

Brian Wilson hits the nail on the head, but Labour hasn’t the guts to depose Brown

But the incumbent Prime Minister has a powerful machine that keeps him securely in place as leader of his Party.  There is no Heseltine or Howe whose cricket comment was one of the most notorious political quotes.  (Was that really almost 18 years ago?  This blogger is showing his age – 32 – as he remembers it well.  What a betrayal.)

Just as the Telegraph is running a series (and free DVDs) on Baroness Thatcher, and that will surely get help to get the Conservative vote out – including millions of people who have not voted Tory since 1992 – Labour will be decimated in the Local Elections.  For sure, 2008 is a lot like 1979 – but we have to wait until 2010 to kick them out from Downing Street.

But at least in 2008 Boris will be able to oust RedKen, and Labour Councillors will fall like the pins in a game of ten-pin bowling played by your mate who always gets a strike…

Roll on 2010.  We know that Labour just hasn’t got the guts to depose Brown.  It would not be a betrayal in Labour ranks to remove Brown, but still no one would dare.  They would rather stay in their comfort zones, and easily lose their marginal seats (and, I am sure, some not-so-marginal seats), rather than take on the Iron Chancellor who became the Rusty Prime Minister.  Does that sound a bit like 1979?

Posted by Mountjoy 11.03am

Interest rates reduced, but too little too late

So the Bank of England has finally reduced interest rates to 5%.  However, this really is too little too late -while the US Federal Reserve (the ‘Fed’), led by the capable Ben Bernanke, has slashed interest rates, signs are that the US economy may have had a needed injection of sanity.

As for the UK, the Bank is too obsessed about inflation – despite the 2.5% fall in house prices which sounds like deflation to me – to be brave about interest rates.  Brown, Darling and the Labour Party have made a complete pig’s ear of the economy … and the Bank is too timid to sort out interest rates.

If you are trying to sell a house or thinking about going on the housing ladder, you may have a long wait.  Mortgages are already being rationed – so much for economic stability.

Labour has well and truly lost its reputation for economic competence, but at least there is a future Government waiting in the wings.

Posted by Mountjoy 10.36am

Boris to beat RedKen hands down

I would have blogged on this earlier but have been afflicted by toothache and have this morning endured a root canal.

The Evening Standard YouGov poll 7/4/8 has Boris 49%, RedKen 36% (13 point lead).

What is interesting is not just than this is even with LibDem Brian Paddick at only 10%, but also Boris leads by 14 points (49 : 35) amongst men and 12 points (49 : 37) amongst women. 

And Boris is ahead by 7 points (45 : 38) for 18-34 yr olds, 8 points (47 : 39) 35-54 and 26 points (56 : 30) 55 +.  Given that older people tend to turn out to vote, RedKen is in for a serious kicking on May 1st.

Boris also leads ABC1 by 16 points (51: 35) and C2DE by 8 points (46 : 38).  It will be interesting to see C2DEs’ voting preference now that those of them on low incomes realise how Labour is penalising them.

Well done to RedKen for whittling away a majority of 143,000 on the first preferences and 159,000 on the second preferences (itself down from a staggering 220,000 majority on first and 210,000 on second preferences in 2000 – Steve Norris got more second preference votes).

The obvious conclusion is that RedKen should have stayed an independent Mayor.  Not only does his opponent Boris tower above him, but the state of the Labour Party (and its lacklustre leader) is hardly helping Livingstone.

We salute Boris when he rids London of its incumbent Mayor.

Posted by Mountjoy 10.19pm

Gordon the asset-stripper

The International Monetary Fund has forecast much lower growth than Darling predicted in this latest budget and pre-budget report.  Which means, of course, that the public finances will be in a complete mess and goodness knows what this will mean for taxation and the public services (the Social Security budget will not be affected, though, as they mostly vote Labour, don’t they?).

Meanwhile, house prices fell in just one month by 2.5% (John Redwood has a good take on this subject here), which means if they fall by the same amount every month for the next year we will have a 30% drop, i.e. a housing market crash.

Part of my reason for not blogging for the past 4 or 5 months was stress from not being able to sell my house, until a fellow blogger (who is on my Blogroll) kindly purchased it from me as he needed to buy a home in the area.  Purchasing a house at the moment is a reasonably good deal if you are in for the long-haul, and you can convince sellers not to be greedy and try to stick to the “asking price” (i.e. the over-inflated price that estate agents seek to maximise their commission).  Simply do not offer anything more than 85% of the asking price.

And meanwhile the Bank of England is obsessed with keeping “low inflation” (CPI, RPI, RIP or whatever it’s called), even though we know that inflation has, well, inflated over the past 10 years. 

Why is all this happening?  It’s not just the credit crunch, stupid.  Gordon Brown has acted a bit like a Private Equity boss, asset-stripping the UK while he was Chancellor and still doing so through his proxy, Alistair Darling, and what for?  To win the 2001 and 2005 elections.  Thing is, they forgot that when you asset-strip, and the chickens come home to roost, it is impossible to win the following election.

Enjoy your next 2 years, asset-strippers, because it will be quite a while after that before you get to hold the reins of Government again. 

Posted by Mountjoy 9.57am