The Wilted Rose

The first victim of the “Brown Bounce”, Sir Menzies Campbell, has sadly resigned as the Leader of the Liberal Democrats.  Not only did the Lib Dems find that their vote was squeezed by Labour - Brown not being Blair - although I have argued on this blog that such voters must be deluded, since Brown provided the cash for the Iraq War and was just as supportive of it as Blair. 

The Lib Dems have also had a squeeze on their vote from the Conservatives and this, in concert with the squeeze from Labour, has put the Lib Dems at between 11 and 16% in recent polls. 

However, in a general election there would, as usual, be a swing to the Lib Dems as their policies - and personalities - become more visible to the public, as in our first-past-the-post system, often the Third Party is not accorded equal air time outside of a general election.

The weakest, and most incompetent, leader at the moment is Gordon Brown, whose ‘great clunking fist’ has turned out to be a weak impersonation of what Blair promised in one of his last speeches.  Sooner or later Brown will falter on Foreign Affairs (if the Iraq Troops Spinning a few weeks back was not enough), and it will be the Lib Dems and the Conservatives who will benefit from this. 

The future of the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, in some ways, depend on what response both parties take towards war-mongering in Iran, which Brown may be stupid enough to go along with - such would be electoral suicide.  The Conservatives chose to support the Iraq War, which is different from supporting the troops while they’re out there, and support for the war was on reflection not such a good idea.  It is unlikely that Cameron would support military action against Iran.

Although the media and press have tried to spin a “plot to oust Ming”, it was in fact themselves (the media, in particular) that had it out for Ming and engineered his downfall.  It must not be forgotten that the tabloids, in particular, have the blood of Princess Diana on their hands because they were prepared to pay paparazzi to take intrusive photos of her - and recently they chased Prince William and Ms Middleton.  Now the press and media have forced out a man who was too nice for politics and the despicable “ageism” that has been used against him is especially galling.

This blog does not blame Sir Ming for the fall in the Lib Dems’ poll support, which was in fact caused by the Brown Bounce and the Cameron Bounce, plus the media talking down Sir Ming’s leadership.  Hopefully, whoever takes over from him will adopt traditional liberal democratic policies, rather than trying to occupy the “centre ground” which is already overcrowded, and win the votes of disaffected Labour supporters.  It is my view that this is the future for the Lib Dems, as very many of the southern seats (including almost certainly that of Chris Huhne) will be lost to the Conservatives. 

Seats like City of Durham, for example, would easily be won by the Lib Dems if they maintain a consistent Liberal Democratic message, with elements of social democracy, to eliminate the morally- and politically-bankrupt Labour Government.  It is tempting either to fight on both fronts - against the Tories in the south and Labour elsewhere - or even to contemplate entering coalition with Labour if a hung parliament were to arise.

The Lib Dems should instead adopt a new decapitation strategy.  While the Conservatives decapitate Labour in the south, parts of London and the Midlands, the Lib Dems could decapitate Labour in many other areas.  That will take the courage of whoever the new leader of the Lib Dems is, for the price to pay is not just electoral disaster, but the survival of this iniquitous Labour Government.