the wilted rose

Sorry the blogging has been light of recent, but I had other things on my mind.

I watched Newsnight on Tuesday night, yes a long time ago now, but it did raise some interesting questions about New Labour’s addiction to spin.

Gordon Brown claims 1,000 troops are coming home but, in fact, 500 of those haven’t even gone out.  He has inflated this figure by 100% in order to make it sound better – to help his opinion poll situation, i.e. to widen his apparent lead.

And then he does something Peter Mandelson or Alistair Campbell would never do.  He puts the inarticulate Bob Ainsworth, a defence minister, (where was Des Browne ?  In Kilmarnock presumably), on Newsnight to defend this lie. 

Bob Ainsworth of course is crushed by Paxman and makes Brown look an even bigger liar than he actually does.

The next day Cameron delivers a much-hailed speech.  The opinion polls are due out not long after.  Expect a Cameroon Bounce, to deaden the Brown Bounce, so no general election.

Brown looks an even bigger fool because he has dangled lucratively the titillating possibility of a snap election.  But, if the polls have narrowed, which they are bound to do, he cannot go for an election as he may be in a worse position than he is now.

In effect, Brown has no choice now but to call a snap poll, or he will look like a fool, so he will on Tuesday no doubt call one.  Unless he really has no guts.

He should have gone for September then he could have stopped the inevitable, or not speculated at all.  Brownite strategists and spin-doctors should call back Peter from Brussels and Alistair from writing his memoirs, offer them £200,000, Coulson-like salaries and get them to do the spinning and strategy.  Whoever’s doing Brown’s is not on the ball.

There will be Tory gains, from Dartford, Dudley North to Vale of Clwyd and Westminster North … and Brown will be a lame duck prime minister if he clings onto the premiership … Cameron will be a new force for change if Brown doesn’t. 

If Brown doesn’t call it he has egg on his face and the polls will be unfavourable.  He will have to wait and where will he be then.

So who do you think you are kidding, Mr Ainsworth?  The electorate?  With a general election looming?

Posted by Mountjoy 3.29pm