End of spin?

Amidst the very conference in which Brown declares the end of spin, up and rising new Labourite James Purnell gets caught in a doctored photo scandal. 

 The worst about this is not that the photo was faked, but that Purnell has changed his story, lied, claiming no knowledge, which is the new Labour way of doing things.

Sad to see it’s service as usual from the Government.  Nothing has changed since the Blair era, so why is the electorate apparently so stupid to fall for more Labour spin?

Posted by Mountjoy 9.42am

Crime at its lowest level in 10 years :-)

Here is a classic from Croydonian here:

“And we are making progress: Violent crime at its lowest for a decade”.  

JACQUI SMITH

Posted by Mountjoy 8.29pm

Why I’m backing Boris

Ken Livingstone is one of the most disastrous things that has happened to London in a long time.  His congestion charge, as well as a lot of other ill thought out policies, have not helped London to develop to its full potential.  Yes, it is a successful city but it is one that is blighted by a number of problems that Red Ken is incapable, ideologically, of tackling.

That is why London needs a man like Boris Johnson, who has won 79% of the Conservative primary for London mayor, and who appeals to people across the political spectrum.  He has added some excitement to politics in London and only he can beat Livingstone. 

Boris is a brilliant man with a remarkable ancestry, including his great grandfather Turkish politician Ali Kemal and he is also descended on one side of his family from the Fawcetts, as outlined in Andrew Gimson’s book on Boris.  He is just what London needs to turn back the tide of 10 years of Labour and about the same length of time of Ken. 

For these reasons, I wholeheartedly back Boris for Mayor of London.

Posted by Mountjoy 3.15pm

Ed(ucation) Balls

On a day when it emerges that Peter Mandelson won’t after all suck up to Gordon Brown, but instead attacked Brown’s speech, another tiresome speech is given on the stage in Bournemouth. 

Ed Balls made his first speech at the Labour Party conference as Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families (i.e. the DCSF).  Brown, in his wisdom, thought that SoS for Education was not enough of a mouthful so he elongated the title of the Department. 

And actually he should have interchanged Schools and Families and called it the DCFS, which is also an acronym for Discounted Cash FlowS, which are a jolly good way of valuing something.  Frankly, if Brown were to use DCFs to value the PFI commitments he has made (robbing the next generation, as someone else has suggested), and include them on the Government’s balance sheet, the public finances would look worse than the dire state they’re in.

So what does Ed(ucation) Balls offer for children, schools and families?  Not very much, in fact, as he claims we should “move on” from this “sterile debate” about dumbing down.  Well, everyone knows that Labour has performed dumbing down par excellence, to such an extent that employers are tearing their hair out about the state of education of young jobseekers. 

Balls seeks to create an independent educational system, just like the Bank of England independence that has served us so well in stoking up an economic boom based upon debt and credit, and will eventually lead to the almighty economic crash that is approaching.

How appropriate that Balls is credited with advising Brown to go for BoE independence, and that he should be the man that will implement such a disastrous policy in education too?

That is the way of Brownian policy – take one failed (apparently successful) policy from elsewhere and adapt it?  But education is too precious to be experimented with in this way – haven’t our kids not already been betrayed enough?

Posted by Mountjoy 10.02pm

Brown boring, Miliband overpromoted, Mandleson toadying

The Sun summed it up pretty well today, that it is certainly “not Gordon Brown’s finest hour”, in that only 12 seconds of his boring hour-long speech was about the EU referendum.

This is a man who is supposed to be experiencing a second “Brown Bounce” but, after all, how inspiring is a boring Prime Minister?  Is middle Britain really convinced by the further spin, although plainly boring spin, emanating from the mouth of the most boring “Conviction Politician” since some boring old politician of the 19th century?

But being boring – and “serious”, as Brown claims - hides from the public the non-delivery of policy that his party has achieved in the last 10 years, and the disastrous Brownian economic policy, which was based on stoking up an economic boom based on unsustainable debt.

Mind you, that is not half as serious as the plain overpromoted David Miliband who appeared on Newsnight tonight for a good Paxmanic grilling.  And came off the worst.  The best Paxmanian line was “Don’t patronise me”, which produced a scowl from the Foreign Secretary.

Miliband is as good as his job as he was a football when he was a kid, as the press reported at the weekend, letting in 7 goals in one match.  He let in plenty of goals when faced with the BBC’s star striker Jeremy Paxman.

Brown was so weak he had to deny Harman the Deputy Prime Ministership (despite she being elected by his party), he had to give jobs to Alistair Darling and , even worse , the Milibands because David “stood graciously down” from contesting the party leadership.

We know the ‘great clunking fist’ would have flattened Miliband, but he would not have been much of a PM from his performance on Newsnight.

And then there is the hilarious spectacle (rumoured, as it may not have happened yet) which we are promised of EU Con-missioner Mandelson “backing Brown”.  I mean, how scared can the Labour party be of a general election if Peter ‘may I have some guacamole with my chips’ [it was really mushy peas in Hartlepool but he didn't know of such a thing] Mandleson has to toady to Gordon Brown?

Posted by Mountjoy 11.05pm

Even newborn babies at risk under new Labour

I don’t have much time to write this post, as I’m at the Warsaw’s Frederic Chopin Airport waiting for my flight.  But, whilst I thought I could have a go at David Miliband’s laughable “ten more years” of New Labour claim, which I discovered on the front of a copy of the Observer (one of few newspapers I could find today), there is an even more alarming story.

New Labour brags about their NHS ‘investment’, despite no reform or improvements and their new ‘policy’ to tackle MRSA – what about the last ten years pf various farcical Health Secretaries? Something like one in a hundred babies are being damaged during childbirth, according to another article in the same newspaper.

It seems even at childbirth people are at risk of the incompetence and policy non-delivery of this iniquitous new Labour Government.

Posted by Mountjoy 10.47am CET

The perils of Facebook

Not political this post as such, but many politicos do use Facebook to network.  Many city banks having banned Facebook, which is shortsighted and may have partly contributed to the financial crisis – as bankers rushed out to internet cafés to see whether clients had been in contact with them today.

I have been in Poland now for a week and have logged on to Facebook for the first time in about 10 days and what do I find?  This:

Requests
3 friend detail requests
2 group invitations
8 likeness quiz requests
2 compare requests
3 vampire invitations
5 zombie invitations
1 zombies invitation
1 get superlatives invitation
3 wall post requests
1 invite to jedi vs si invitation
1 likeness unrated request
1 tv shows invitation
2 my music invitations
1 booze mail request
1 poker- help a friend invitation
15 Notifications

I despair.

Posted by Mountjoy 11.55pm CET

Brownian economic policy and the gathering economic storm

Having finished my ‘my stats are terrible’ sulk, I have had a good think about Brownian economic policy and the gathering economic storm.

Basically, New Labour’s original election victory in 1997 was built on the character – and supposed charisma – of Tony Blair.  Neither it, nor the 2001 and 2005 re-elections, were based on policy.  Very little useful policy has actually been delivered.  But the difference in the re-elections was that Gordon Brown was managing the economy well etc, the electorate thought, and the Tories wouldn’t, they believed.

However, despite the ERM debacle, is Brownian economic policy so wonderful after all?  The Monetary Policy Committee sets the interest rates independently, but Gordon has made sure people are on there who will do what he would wish.

Tha Bank of England’s bail-out of Northern Rock, a symbol of Labour’s North East heartland if every there were one, (not surprisingly, the Northern Rock Foundation has given a £191,000 research grant to the iniquitous IPPR North, a new Labour friendly ‘think tank’), has led to Governor Merv ‘the Swerve’ King being hauled before a parliamentary committee.  And causing customers to go running panicking (understandably) to Northern Rock branches to get their money out.

Then Alistair Darling says all the money in Northern Rock accounts will be underwritten by the Government / Bank of England.

Darling and King, never mind Northern Rock’s CEO Adam Applegarth,  should all resign as a result of this fiasco.  But the man ultimately responsible for the reckless borrowing that underpins this disaster – which, in the case of Northern Rock, is not just about credit markets drying up, and more widely threatens to wreck the British economy – is Gordon Brown.

He will not resign but ultimately he will fall on his sword electorally and quite rightly too.

Posted by Mountjoy 4.55pm CET

This blog is not closed after all

A few days ago, a bit stressed about work and worried about the effect of Brownian economic policy on the prospects of selling my house in Wolverhampton, I posted the following:

It is, with a heavy heart, that I close this blog.  I apologise to regular readers, but traffic has been very poor in the last few weeks.  Despite an initial surge to over 2,500 hits, the blog has been only receiving no more than 25 or so hits each day.  From a peak of 397 views on 1st September and 296 on 5th September, very few visitors have come to this blog since then.  The blog has been running since mid August and I have decided it is not worth continuing given the disappointing numbers of hits. 

I have been overwhelmed and delighted by the responses from readers, so for you guys I will keep the blog going.  Thank you for reading and for the kind compliments.

Posted by Mountjoy 6:58pm CET, and reconsidered at 4.42pm CET two days later

The re-emergence of two-party politics in England and Scotland

Posting has been and will be light for the next week as I am in Warsaw but here’s one I made earlier… 

There has arguably not been two-party politics in the UK for some time. Since 1992, Labour has been well ahead in opinion polls and was the only contender in general elections and in elections (after 1997) in Scotland and Wales.

Before that date, from 1979 onwards, the left vote was fragmented between Labour (in its then unelectable form) and the Liberals/SDP/LibDems, ensuring significant Conservative majorities.

This article will argue that there is a re-emergence of two-party politics in England and Scotland. In England, in General Elections opinion polls suggest that anti-Labour voters are coalescing behind the Conservatives, while anti-Tory voters are backing Labour. This partly explains the volatility of opinion polls:

There has been a significant shift of support, it appears, in England from the Lib Dems to both the Conservatives and Labour. This, however, is predominantly concentrated in southern and midland England, and it is not happening in the north to any great extent.

In particular, the Lib Dems appear to have lost significant support : Younger voters (down from 29% in 2005 to 18% in 2007 of 18-24 yr olds , with falls of 8% 25-34 and 9% 35-44, 7% 45-54 and 3% down in 65+ according to a recent poll; Populus, I think).

Labour have picked up support other groups (though actually falling, as have the Conservatives, amongst 55-64 yr olds)

The Conservatives now command the support of 51% of the key demographic : over 65s : compared to 27% for Labour. C are up from 39% to 51%, and Lab down from 37% to 27%. In the last general election L & C were level pegging according to Populus with 65+ but now C have almost twice as much support in this age group.

This is where most of the C improvement is in older people, probably mainly in the south but also elsewhere in marginal seats in the Midlands (possibly also North).

A key trend, therefore, is the way in which the Tories appear to have captured not only the south (and, to some extent, the Midlands) but have also captured the over 65s. Labour picks up much support amongst younger age groups that actually tend not to vote.

The concentration of Labour votes is, therefore, in its safe seats; whilst the older voters in marginal seats are shifting towards the Conservatives. The increases in the south (and the midlands, and slightly – i.e 3% – in the north), and the capturing of the 65+ demographic (which is something like 90% likely to vote!) – is highly positive for the Conservatives.

It all depends on whether the Tories can build their support further.

In Scotland, not only is Labour support picking up (as Gordon Brown, popular in Scotland, and he is also not Tony Blair), but there is a huge surge in support for the SNP (with support coming from both Tory voters and the Lib Dems). In many Labour constituencies where the SNP is in second place, there appears to be a significant shift to the SNP. For example, in Kilmarnock, with a 8,000 Labour majority, Des Browne is particularly vulnerable to this effect.

Therefore, in England voters are lining up behind the Conservatives or Labour (at the expense of the LibDems, UKIP etc), and in Scotland they are lining up behind Labour or the SNP (at the expense of the Tories and the LibDems). In Wales it is still pretty much four parties battling it out.

So the Brown bounce is not so much a reaction to a new PM, but a reaction to the realisation that the next general election is all to play for and either Labour or the Conservatives could win it.  That was not going to happen in 2005 (i.e. the result was already known), so a protest vote was possible.  To use an analogy with entrepreneurship, the outcome was certain and therefore people did not have to worry about taking a risk with their vote.  However, now people are returning to one of the major two parties who could win the election.

For anti-Tory voters, they still do not trust the Conservatives and do not wish to see them return to power.

For anti-Labour voters, they see what Labour has done to the economy (i.e. rising debt and the Northern Rock debacle), NHS, schools, crime, the EU referendum lie, public sector workers being effectively paid less than the previous year, their pensions etc and they are keen to put a stop to it.  It is notable that many of the people understandably lining up in front of Northern Rock Branches were over 65s afraid of losing the rest of what they have.  They will never vote Labour again.

It suggests the next election may be a lot closer, whenever it is; but don’t bank on it being in the next year or two.  2009 or 2010 is more likely given the gathering economic storm.

Posted by Mountjoy 9.34am

Under Brown the cost of a cooked breakfast soars

This story in the Times got me thinking: now Labour has succeeded - through its economic policies, Bank of England independence, taxation, regulation, as well as its cultural war against agriculture and the countryside – in increasing the cost of a cooked breakfast.

Next time you order your full English, Ulster fry, Scottish or Welsh breakfast, just remember that Gordon Brown has forced the price up through his policies.  This is a working class pleasure and many working people should think carefully about voting Labour in future, after this latest betrayal.

Posted by Mountjoy 12.18pm

Terracotta Cotta MPs

See the link here : PM Opens Terracotta Army Exhibition : these guys are probably more willing to speak up against him than his Front Bench… (apart from the EU Referendum, of course, the one and only rebellion against Brown).

Posted by Mountjoy 12.30pm

It gets worse under Brown

As if it is a harbinger of Brown’s inability to execute a general election, new storms are visible on the horizon.  There are four particulalry notable such storms today:-

1. The press reports that mortgages rates are at an all time high, whilst the pain of repossessions and homeowners defaulting on their loans kicks in.  John Redwood discusses the belief that house rises may fall.  This Brown may try to blame on the US subprime crisis – and its impacts on the financial markets – but those buffoons at the Bank of England can take much of the credit for this.  Brown, remember, gained plaudits for the Bank’s independence; was this such a good policy?

2. Taxation continues to bite, as public sector unions (we blogged on Monday of these) consider strike action:

• Tax incentives would be a good start to help workers, but of course Brown has messed up the public finances to such an extent by (as today reported, and discussed below) pumping money into the NHS with no decent outcomes, that he has also denied public sector workers their rightful pay rises.  
   
• Many private sectors firms have no such financial constraints and continue to reward staff handsomely – unless you are a low-wage earner, hamstrung by Labour’s tax/benefits system mess, of course.  And then you have to be ‘local’ to gain employment, of course, given the iniquitous “Local Employment Contracts.”

3. The Wanless Report has come up to day with clear evidence that all that money that, rightly, was pumped into the NHS has come to nought.  Of course, whilst Labour was then relied upon to pump vote-winning funds into the NHS, it did so without undertaking much in the way of reform or restructuring.  Commissions or advisers like Wanless are supposed to say ‘Government Doing Well’ but, in this case, Derek obviously wasn’t briefed sufficiently well to understand his remit … or he is, perhaps a first, an honest chair of a commission to report to the Government.

4. And let’s save for last a real corker.  This is despicability (if there is such a word) at its most despicable (synonym: Labour Party), and it comes from our favourite Labour politician, Wendy Alexander, who’s called for the Barnett formula to be rethought:

• This is not in the interests of Scotland, because it has been decreed by Gordon in order to try to sew up English votes.  Ms Alexander is supposed to be the leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament.  She’s hardly acting in Scotland’s favour by making such an assertion.
• But then it might have something to do with the desperation with which Brown tries to dig his Government out of a hole in order to win (or at least cling on just about) a general election.  This statement has implications for Wales’s and Ulster’s funding formulae too – not good for these other parts of the UK.
• Ultimately, though, this ‘decree Browni’ (as opposed to Nissi) will help to secure the SNP’s future for generations as the Government (oh, how we relish that word, as opposed to the lily-livered-Labour word Executive), whilst Scottish Labour languishes.  More Labour MSPs will be lost and Labour MPs will fall too, in once safe Labour fiefdoms.

What is this all about, then?  It is quite simply all about a Government that is falling apart before our very eyes. 

The opinion poll slip, and the clear deflation of the Brown Bounce (which was only ever really evident in the Labour heartlands and some core voters anyway), coincides with a general coming home to roost of the chickens, i.e. the NHS, the economy etc.

Worse still is the continued denial by Jacqui Smith and others that there is, indeed, social breakdown and crime.  She recently has spoken – about time too, wethinks – and said that there is only ‘fear of crime’ and other politicians are sensationalising.  She obviously, as a Minister of State, is living in that parallel world called Westminster and does not have to take the tube or bus home like the rest of us.  Fit to Govern?  I don’t think so.

Posted by Mountjoy 12.08pm

Labour enshrines racial discrimination

Now we learn that Gordon Brown is enshrining racial discrimination in employment by promoting the abominable Local Employment Contracts.  All Labour is doing is scrabbling for votes from working-class people now that the opinion polls are turning against Labour.  In fact, he may turn many people against Labour as a result.

These Contracts with large companies mean that immigrants, often recent arrivals, are unable to apply for jobs.  They are given to ‘local British workers’ instead; code for White British people.

Why is Labour up to this?  It certainly shows its desperation to gain votes; it also shows that it is out of touch with the electorate, particularly ethnic minorities and people from immigrant backgrounds or families, whose votes it has often taken for granted. 

Labour may actually turn people against it.  Many people are not interested in low paid jobs when they can receive benefits instead.

The Government should sort out the tax and benefits system, then many British born people will apply for jobs, when it is worth applying.  Not block off one of the few sources of workers that many businesses have.  The last thing it wants to do is to put low skilled or lazy homegrown employees in jobs.

A vote for Labour is a vote for racial discrimination.

Posted by Mountjoy 1.20pm

Winter of Discontent

According to the Independent, the country is likely to be facing a new winter of discontent. Notorious for toppling Jim Callaghan’s disastrous Government in 1979, the previous winter of discontent lives on in Labour folklore.

Just why should a member of a trade union vote for Gordon Brown’s party when Brown is offering a pathetic half-of-inflation rise for public sector workers?  This is an insult and betrayal to people without this country could not run.  Their votes have often been taken for granted by Labour, but should that be the case any more.

It will be sad to see strikes again but public sector workers have been pushed too far.  It is a drastic course of action to have to take, but we for one support their cause – a decent wage rise.  Brown has pushed them to this and it is more evidence that his party’s rose has well and truly wilted.

Posted by Mountjoy 10.30am