The Wilted Rose

Posting has been and will be light for the next week as I am in Warsaw but here’s one I made earlier… 

There has arguably not been two-party politics in the UK for some time. Since 1992, Labour has been well ahead in opinion polls and was the only contender in general elections and in elections (after 1997) in Scotland and Wales.

Before that date, from 1979 onwards, the left vote was fragmented between Labour (in its then unelectable form) and the Liberals/SDP/LibDems, ensuring significant Conservative majorities.

This article will argue that there is a re-emergence of two-party politics in England and Scotland. In England, in General Elections opinion polls suggest that anti-Labour voters are coalescing behind the Conservatives, while anti-Tory voters are backing Labour. This partly explains the volatility of opinion polls:

There has been a significant shift of support, it appears, in England from the Lib Dems to both the Conservatives and Labour. This, however, is predominantly concentrated in southern and midland England, and it is not happening in the north to any great extent.

In particular, the Lib Dems appear to have lost significant support : Younger voters (down from 29% in 2005 to 18% in 2007 of 18-24 yr olds , with falls of 8% 25-34 and 9% 35-44, 7% 45-54 and 3% down in 65+ according to a recent poll; Populus, I think).

Labour have picked up support other groups (though actually falling, as have the Conservatives, amongst 55-64 yr olds)

The Conservatives now command the support of 51% of the key demographic : over 65s : compared to 27% for Labour. C are up from 39% to 51%, and Lab down from 37% to 27%. In the last general election L & C were level pegging according to Populus with 65+ but now C have almost twice as much support in this age group.

This is where most of the C improvement is in older people, probably mainly in the south but also elsewhere in marginal seats in the Midlands (possibly also North).

A key trend, therefore, is the way in which the Tories appear to have captured not only the south (and, to some extent, the Midlands) but have also captured the over 65s. Labour picks up much support amongst younger age groups that actually tend not to vote.

The concentration of Labour votes is, therefore, in its safe seats; whilst the older voters in marginal seats are shifting towards the Conservatives. The increases in the south (and the midlands, and slightly – i.e 3% – in the north), and the capturing of the 65+ demographic (which is something like 90% likely to vote!) – is highly positive for the Conservatives.

It all depends on whether the Tories can build their support further.

In Scotland, not only is Labour support picking up (as Gordon Brown, popular in Scotland, and he is also not Tony Blair), but there is a huge surge in support for the SNP (with support coming from both Tory voters and the Lib Dems). In many Labour constituencies where the SNP is in second place, there appears to be a significant shift to the SNP. For example, in Kilmarnock, with a 8,000 Labour majority, Des Browne is particularly vulnerable to this effect.

Therefore, in England voters are lining up behind the Conservatives or Labour (at the expense of the LibDems, UKIP etc), and in Scotland they are lining up behind Labour or the SNP (at the expense of the Tories and the LibDems). In Wales it is still pretty much four parties battling it out.

So the Brown bounce is not so much a reaction to a new PM, but a reaction to the realisation that the next general election is all to play for and either Labour or the Conservatives could win it.  That was not going to happen in 2005 (i.e. the result was already known), so a protest vote was possible.  To use an analogy with entrepreneurship, the outcome was certain and therefore people did not have to worry about taking a risk with their vote.  However, now people are returning to one of the major two parties who could win the election.

For anti-Tory voters, they still do not trust the Conservatives and do not wish to see them return to power.

For anti-Labour voters, they see what Labour has done to the economy (i.e. rising debt and the Northern Rock debacle), NHS, schools, crime, the EU referendum lie, public sector workers being effectively paid less than the previous year, their pensions etc and they are keen to put a stop to it.  It is notable that many of the people understandably lining up in front of Northern Rock Branches were over 65s afraid of losing the rest of what they have.  They will never vote Labour again.

It suggests the next election may be a lot closer, whenever it is; but don’t bank on it being in the next year or two.  2009 or 2010 is more likely given the gathering economic storm.

Posted by Mountjoy 9.34am