See more regional analysis on Conservative Home, in particular the dramatic changes that have happened since the 2005 General Election. There is also a Sun MORI Poll out today which gives Lab 41, Con 36, LD 16 – more evidence of the Brown Bounce deflating.
A helpful comment from Forecast UK suggests that the Populus poll would result in Con : 278 (+80), Lab : 307 (-59), Lib D : 16 (-46), SNP : 20 (+14), PC : 7 (+4), Oth : 4, Irish : 18. (The + and – figures are my own calculations and may vary due, for example, to Claire Short resigning from Labour and Quentin Davies defecting from the Tories).
A new opinion poll from Populus (hat tip: Conservative Home and UK Polling Report) commissioned by the Tory Party shows that Labour is on 37% (-2), Conservatives 36% (+3) and Lib Dems 16% (+1). The Populus Poll for the Times (conducted in July 2007) had Lab 39%, Con 33% and LD 15%.
The results would be spectacularly bad for Labour if Gordon Brown were stupid enough to go for a snap General Election. The Tories, although only one point ahead nationally of Labour, are :
- 18 points ahead in the South East (at 49% (+11% up from 38% in the Populus Times poll) with Labour at 31% (-6%) and LD 14% (+2%)
- 7 points ahead in the Midlands at 43% (+6% from 36%) and Labour 36% (no change) and LD 14% (-1%)
- 18 points behind in the North at 27% (down 2%) with Labour on 45% (+2%) the Lib Dems on 22% (+4%)
- 1 point ahead in Wales/SW at 32% (+1%) with Labour on 31% (-7%) and LD on 19% (+5%)
- In Scotland Labour are on 40% (+7%), SNP on 36% (+8%), Con 8% (-10%) and LD 6% (-7%).
The table below derived from the Populus poll highlights these figures:
• Sweeping gains for the Conservatives in the South East and London (predominantly Labour, but a few LD seats too);
• Tories to pick up a large number of key marginal seats in the Midlands; the urban Midlands notoriously didn’t shift for the Tories in the 2005 general election;
• Lib Dems gaining ground from Labour in the North but little Conservative progress;
• Major gains for the Tories in South West and to some extent in Wales;
• SNP gains from Labour and LDs in Scotland.
However, the North-South divide is becoming more pronounced. Much of Labour’s strength remains in the North, and to a lesser extent in Scotland, while it is ebbing away in the South. The electoral bias that favours Labour works in a new way to virtually eliminate Labour from the SE/SW (except London), and to lose it key seats in the Midlands.
For example, all four seats in the Borough of Dudley (Dudley N & S, Stourbridge and Halesowen & Rowley Regis), plus Wolverhampton SW, Birmingham Edgbaston, and a number of other seats, will fall to the Tories.
The picture across the South and within London will be remarkably strong for the Conservatives.
As a result, the 37% Lab, 36% Con is misleading because of huge swings in key battlegrounds from Labour to the Conservatives (to a lesser extent the LDs).
It is now clear that Brown would be kamikaze to call a snap general election, so it is quite understandable – and justified – why Teresa May was today calling for Labour to “bring on” the general election. The release of the figures were forced, so now Labour knows that it must wait.
Whither the Brown bounce? Labour has paid for its mishandling of law and order, the economy, the NHS, education, and so many other aspects of the Government it was entrusted by the British people.
11.03pm Update: Following the helpful suggestion from Ben Surtees below, here is a rough-and-ready analysis of seat changes which this Populus poll suggests.
13.36pm Update [the last tonight]: Yours truly is not happy … I have booked a flight to Poland for a business trip from 14-24 September and now I hear rumours of a General Election being called on Tuesday for 4 or 11 October. I don’t actually believe these rumours, but they have got me rather flustered, to say the least.
12.23am Update [another day]: Excellent post on the polls from Man in A Shed.
9.46am Update: I nearly stayed up all night with all this Opinion Poll and General Election speculation excitement. In response to a post by Welsh blogger Ordovicius, I have provided some analysis of Wales in the rough-and-ready analysis of seat changes.
Posted by Mountjoy 8.17pm
Mountjoy
EML said
Nice analysis. If we can keep up the pressure until the new year I think Labour, and Gordon Brown in particular, is screwed.
Ben Surtees said
Very much a case of not “counting chickens before their hatched” we must wait to see if other polls reflect this in any way (including Populus’ next poll in the Times)… either way could you (and i know it’s a big ask) give a full list of the seats that would flip on that regional breakdown? Again i know its a big ask but it would be very interesting (i would have though a handful of Conservative seats in the north might be vulnerable?)… but as i say would be very interesting indeed to see a full list?
My Telegraph : Mountjoy : August 2007 said
[...] is a summary of a longer article to be found on the Wilted Rose (please click below):http://thewiltedrose.wordpress.com/2007/08/31/new-poll-shows-disaster-for-labour/A new opinion poll from Populus (hat tip: Conservative Home and UK Polling Report) commissioned by [...]
Mountjoy said
Of course, Ben, here is a rough-and-ready analysis . I do try to please my readers!
Grendel said
How does this fit in with the comments from Dizzy and Dale this evening detailing the ‘clearing of decks’ and the reports of questions asking about the readiness of NL candidates in marginal constituencies ahead of some kind of announcement this Tuesday?
I still fear the worse if the next published polls are not starting to coincide with the private poll.
Gordon must have identified an early election as his best chance of winning and as a method of burying the referendum question.
Mountjoy said
Grendel, that’s quite possible, but these comments and an announcement this Tuesday is before the publication of this opinion poll. Brown would be kamikaze to go for a snap poll, if there is any certainty. Though maybe he thinks it is his only change … we shall see. I don’t know when the next Opinion Poll is due, but it will be fascinating to see what the figures look like!
Ralph said
While I would love this to be true I don’t want to fall into the trap those who think the recent YouGov polls are right have.
Most of the pollsters have Labour with a 5/6% lead over the Tories, so we have to wait to see if there is a pattern and this isn’t a rogue.
Man in a Shed said
Its necessary to draw the enemy out into battle, with the prospect of potential victory. Perhaps that explains what the Daily Telegraph is up to with its headlines and comments.
Given the potentially wild financial markets position just at this moment Brown would be playing Russian roulette to go to the country. October is a long way away. But may he knows more of the chambers will be full if he delays by a year or so ?
Who knows ?
yozza said
Oh ‘do’ count chickens before they are hatched.We all enjoyed the orgasmic pre-ejeculation on ConservativeHome and Iain Dale’s blog when Dave the Rave had an opinion poll lead based on little more than hugging a few seals.It’s no less comical to see one poll getting the chinless masses all excited again.I’m sure the PM will make the right decision without the brown-panted fearful opinions of Tories
.Setttle down chaps.
Zondike (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
I wonder? This doesn’t square with the latest YouGov Poll in the DT.
newmania said
I`m not at all sure of the provevnance fo this Poll Mountjoy which is way out of line , Ib `d like to kn what the sample was,. Incienatklly there have been so odd things going on at You Gov accordiong to Antie Flo who is a respondent
newmania said
BTW I had no idea you were such a 100MPH blogger its all most impressive
oldasiahand (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
Frankly it looks like a pile of codswallop. Just shows you can prove anything with polls. My unscientific sample indicates that Brown is still in a honeymoon period whilst Cameron is regarded as abad joke. There is a hunger out there for lower taxes, less regulation, lower crime etc., but the Tories have a presentation problem.Things may get better if and when the economy softens. Brown’s best hope is to go now. Let’s hope he doesn’t.
David Albion (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
This was like the polls that Harold Wilson was given and he was so impressed by them that he called a general election on the strength of the polls.
The result was that he lost and he and mary wilson were forced into baling out of the back of Downing St with possessions whilst Heath was beaming at the front door.
Now Wilson is acknowledged to be one of the cleverst men to come out of cambridge? or wherever with a double first rather like Thatcher.He ran a department during the War years instead of enlisting and achieved some success with that and was marked down as a future labour PM.
All those brains and he accepted a poll.
Brendano (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
To call this blog …
Brendano 01 Sep 2007 13:06
… tendentious claptrap would be excessively kind. Check out the real situation (as Bob Marley might have said) at
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/08/30/ntory130.xml
Mountjoy, you seem to be hoping for a career in politics … on this evidence, your chances are excellent.
tjsudbury (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
Pigs might fly.
cityunslicker said
What a top analysis. i still don’t want an elecion yet though. I want more people to realise just how much Labour have messed things up for the long term so that when we get back in in 2009 it is for another 18 years.
tjsudbury (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
What is your subject?
Mountjoy said
All – Thanks for reading & commenting. Well, it is just one poll, and of course it doesn’t square with YouGov (L 41%, C 33%, LD 14%) or the Guardian ICM poll on 27 August (L 39%, C 34%, LD 18%). However, Brown needs to be very cautious as it is not inconceivable that future polls may be similar.
The important thing to note is that polls typically have a margin of error of around 3%, so in fact the Populus poll may well be the most accurate. But the only time we find out is when people go out to vote, as this is affected by regional variations, differential turnout etc.
I have just made the following point on Political Betting.com:
Although the most recent ICM, YouGov and Ipsos MORI polls are showing larger leads for Labour, I am pretty convinced that regional variations – and our dear friends differential turnout and tactical voting & unwind (this time perhaps Pro-Tory) – make the results of a general election more complex than the headline figures suggest.
Brendano – No, I don’t plan a career in politics (just a hobby), as I already have a career as an academic.
PHILDO (Syndicated from MyTelegraph) said
nice but error margins and other polls…
I think results after the Prison Officer strike and those by other unions start to be flagged will be much more interesting.
The present government got into power with little traditional union money – it is alienating sections of once firm support.
Mountjoy said
tjsudbury – Economics & Strategy, so I am involved in number-crunching quite a lot – I should have expressed some caution re this poll and my headline may have been a little sensational.
PHILDO – Thanks … I’m awaiting the polls next week … I’ll either be debunked or vindicated!
The Half-Blood Welshman said
I agree – although the analysis I offered on my blog wasn’t quite so comprehensive. However, I think the polls are not nearly as favourable for Brown as the YouGov ones seem to be, and I think he’ll not be willing to risk a snap election, despite recent rumours. In any case, a campaign might be bad news for him given his “PR vs PM” habits (check out my blog for more).
I hope I’m wrong though, because I think he might well lose an autumn election, and I want him out!!!
Marc said
The longer Cameron gets to make him self look immature and inexperienced, the better for Brown – so I can’t see him calling any snap election this side of 2008.
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