On his blog John Redwood gives some clear reasons why Brown’s poll rating is slipping and why Brown will not go for a snap poll. I agree with this analysis, and it does not bode well for the future of the Brown Government if it is entangled in so many messes already. Elsewhere, Ellee Seymour wonders whether Prescott’s announcement of his retirement signals an autumn general election, but we rather suspect that it is merely another Prescottian gaffe and because Brown was planning a snap poll but has now been well and truly scuppered by “events, dear boy”.
A fascinating article by Tom Gallagher in September’s Prospect magazine (well worth reading in full) reveals the problems Labour faces in Scotland - with the rise of the SNP - and in particular he reveals that:
“Only the Labour party stands in the way of the SNP becoming the dominant force in politics, possibly for a long time. The Lib Dems are in trouble and the Conservatives are still moribund. But Labour has a sickly pallor and could even implode, as David Trimble’s Ulster Unionists did after 2000. A look at the extent to which Labour’s majorities have shrunk in those 23 single-member seats it still retains shows how serious is the malaise. This insurgency in the prime minister’s own homeland may well kill any hopes he entertained for a quick election. For he is confronted by the most resourceful and popular electoral nationalist since Charles Parnell in the 1880s. The British state he confronts now lacks the deep reserves of legitimacy which it used to break the SNP challenge of the 1970s. And Salmond probably has a few more surprises up his sleeve, which he hopes will unnerve the Westminster elite and lead to the unravelling of the union.”
If Brown’s party has a “sickly pallor” in Scotland, once its heartland, what hope is there of a snap poll? 
28/08/07 Update: We are particularly grateful to some, as always, incisive analysis by Tartan Hero who reveals that, whilst Labour appears to have picked up support according to opinion polls in the North and London, “the [Labour] party is struggling in Scotland and Wales, in the wake of the SNP’s victory in this year’s elections to Holyrood, dropping from 43% in 2005 to 36% now. That suggests Mr Brown may delay an election because he fears losing seats to the SNP.” Wouldn’t that just be tragic?
First millennium: Thanks to this blog’s readers for 1,000 hits. Long may it continue!
28 August, 2007 at 8:35 pm
This is ridiculous. Brown will call an election in the next week and you will have egg on your face. The opinion polls are mostly good for Labour and he will win a general election with gains from the Tories.
28 August, 2007 at 10:21 pm
Aha here you are . I`m a great prospect fan as well. TO be honest I have thought for a long time that Brown`s best chance was to go quickly and althohgh it would compromise his mandate ui fuind it hard to beuive with the callaghan example behind him he would give up what was a 12% lead at times . It cannot get better.
1 They are short of money and the tales of backers cannot be right or why sell the peerages not to say the tobbacco advertising .
2 I bel;ive Browen understands that a win on novelty would be no real victcory. Perhaps he is thinking of Major but then Major ( in my book ) was not half bad