New poll shows disaster for Labour

See more regional analysis on Conservative Home, in particular the dramatic changes that have happened since the 2005 General Election.  There is also a Sun MORI Poll out today which gives Lab 41, Con 36, LD 16 – more evidence of the Brown Bounce deflating. 

A helpful comment from Forecast UK suggests that the Populus poll would result in Con : 278 (+80), Lab : 307 (-59), Lib D : 16 (-46), SNP : 20 (+14), PC : 7 (+4), Oth : 4, Irish : 18.  (The + and – figures are my own calculations and may vary due, for example, to Claire Short resigning from Labour and Quentin Davies defecting from the Tories).

A new opinion poll from Populus (hat tip: Conservative Home and UK Polling Report) commissioned by the Tory Party shows that Labour is on 37% (-2), Conservatives 36% (+3) and Lib Dems 16% (+1).  The Populus Poll for the Times (conducted in July 2007) had Lab 39%, Con 33% and LD 15%.

The results would be spectacularly bad for Labour if Gordon Brown were stupid enough to go for a snap General Election.  The Tories, although only one point ahead nationally of Labour, are :

• 18 points ahead in the South East (at 49% (+11% up from 38% in the Populus Times poll) with Labour at 31% (-6%) and LD 14% (+2%)
• 7 points ahead in the Midlands at 43% (+6% from 36%) and Labour 36% (no change) and LD 14% (-1%)
• 18 points behind in the  North at 27% (down 2%) with Labour on 45% (+2%) the Lib Dems on 22% (+4%)
• 1 point ahead in Wales/SW at 32% (+1%) with Labour on 31% (-7%) and LD on 19% (+5%)
• In Scotland Labour are on 40% (+7%), SNP on 36% (+8%), Con 8% (-10%) and LD 6% (-7%).

The table below derived from the Populus poll highlights these figures:

 

As a result of these figures: 

• Sweeping gains for the Conservatives in the South East and London (predominantly Labour, but a few LD seats too);
• Tories to pick up a large number of key marginal seats in the Midlands; the urban Midlands notoriously didn’t shift for the Tories in the 2005 general election;
• Lib Dems gaining ground from Labour in the North but little Conservative progress;
• Major gains for the Tories in South West and to some extent in Wales;
• SNP gains from Labour and LDs in Scotland.
 

However, the North-South divide is becoming more pronounced.  Much of Labour’s strength remains in the North, and to a lesser extent in Scotland, while it is ebbing away in the South.  The electoral bias that favours Labour works in a new way to virtually eliminate Labour from the SE/SW (except London), and to lose it key seats in the Midlands.

For example, all four seats in the Borough of Dudley (Dudley N & S, Stourbridge and Halesowen & Rowley Regis), plus Wolverhampton SW, Birmingham Edgbaston, and a number of other seats, will fall to the Tories.

The picture across the South and within London will be remarkably strong for the Conservatives.

As a result, the 37% Lab, 36% Con is misleading because of huge swings in key battlegrounds from Labour to the Conservatives (to a lesser extent the LDs).

It is now clear that Brown would be kamikaze to call a snap general election, so it is quite understandable – and justified – why Teresa May was today calling for Labour to “bring on” the general election.  The release of the figures were forced, so now Labour knows that it must wait.

Whither the Brown bounce?  Labour has paid for its mishandling of law and order, the economy, the NHS, education, and so many other aspects of the Government it was entrusted by the British people.

11.03pm Update: Following the helpful suggestion from Ben Surtees below, here is a rough-and-ready analysis of seat changes which this Populus poll suggests.

13.36pm Update [the last tonight]: Yours truly is not happy … I have booked a flight to Poland for a business trip from 14-24 September and now I hear rumours of a General Election being called on Tuesday for 4 or 11 October.  I don’t actually believe these rumours, but they have got me rather flustered, to say the least.

12.23am Update [another day]: Excellent post on the polls from Man in A Shed.

9.46am Update: I nearly stayed up all night with all this Opinion Poll and General Election speculation excitement.  In response to a post by Welsh blogger Ordovicius, I have provided some analysis of Wales in the rough-and-ready analysis of seat changes.

Posted by Mountjoy 8.17pm

Is the electorate sleepwalking its way to disaster?

The Friday View

If you were shipwrecked on a desert island and had returned to the UK for the first time in many years, you would realise that you were in a country in despair.  The Labour Government is one of the most discredited, dishonest and malicious to have ever ruled.  And yet it has a spring in its step because Labour has replaced its best ever leader with the man who has run the Treasury for  the past 10 years with false distinction.

And now, according to YouGov in the Daily Telegraph, and here again by Professor Anthony King in its pages, Labour is on 41%, the Conservatives on 33% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%.

We will first comment on the meagre 14% that the Lib Dems have, as many people who voted LibDem in the 2005 General Election are apparently returning to Labour because Brown is not Blair.  They voted LibDem because of the Iraq war and other matters.  We ask these people – do you really think that Labour under Brown is any different from under Blair?  Brown is the man who voted for, and moreover, paid for the war you voted against.  Just recently, the LibDems highlighted the crisis that is the aftermath of the war.

And the Conservatives on 33% – under David Cameron who alongside David Davis stood tall against crime and social breakdown at the weekend.

Exactly what is the electorate thinking?  Why is it sleepwalking its way to disaster?  (With the exception of the Scottish people, who are turning their backs on Labour.)  As we argued on this blog one week ago, there is no way that Brown is going to call a snap general election because of the uncertainty of the opinion polls – and the vagaries of the economy – and because he honestly isn’t confident enough to take the risk.  This is a man who was happy to risk (and lose 100s of £millions of taxpayers’ money) by selling our gold.

The current Labour Government is, frankly, a shambles under so many different dimensions.  We can only suggest that the online voting (hence younger demographics and a skewness and bias towards Labour) of YouGov and the timing of the survey has produced misleading results.  Brown realises this too and it is ironic that such good poll results for Labour are too good to be true.

These are our ten specific reasons, in no specific order, for not voting Labour and for doing everything possible to defeat this dreadful Government:

1. Shamir Shah, writing on 18 Doughty Street, reports that a Durham University study has revealed that Sure Start (cost to the taxpayer:£3bn) “has had no effect on their [children's] development.”  A wasted opportunity and a betrayal. 

2. Whether you were for or against the war, Labour lied in order to force the War in Iraq through the house of Commons and we know what happened to Dr Kelly.  Brown paid for the Iraq War and is just as implicated as Blair.  Shame. 

3. As a result of the Government’s foreign policy, many Muslims – who are amongst the most hard-working and entrepreneurial people with stable families and cohesive communities – feel alienated in Labour’s Britain today.  Betrayal. 

4. Public sector workers face uncertainty about whether their wages will be increased – or pegged to keep down inflation - despite the huge increases in private sector pay (and, for some, record bonuses).  All because Brown, to gain votes on the run up to the 2001 election, messed up the public finances.  Betrayal. 

5. Despite calls from 120 Labour MPs and senior trade unionists and pressure from other parties, Brown is determined to press ahead with the European “Treaty” (i.e. the Constitution with a different name) without the inconvenience of a referendum.  Why shouldn’t the people have a say?  Betrayal and a lack of trust in the people. 

6. High levels of unemployment in many of Britain’s great cities – and, in particular, these figures reveal continued Labour market disadvantage for many ethnic minority people – thanks, in large part, to education policy as discussed below.  Betrayal. 

7. The ladder of opportunity offered by grammar schools was long ago hoisted up by the Labour Party.  Comprehensives, and not even many of the City Academies, have offered the educational opportunities that people in our most deprived areas deserve.  Even if they are bright, current educational ideology and dogma dictates that there can be “no selection by ability”.  If you can afford a house in a nice catchment area, it’s a different story.  Shame and betrayal. 

8. The NHS remains unreformed, with huge amounts of money being pumped in and yet significant problems.  The Government plans to close – or ‘reconfigure’ – A&E departments in many locations; whilst many other difficulties, such as MRSA and doctors being left out of work (and we are short of doctors too).  Betrayal. 

9. The economy – yes, that old chestnut, “prudence” and “economic stability”, and of course “Bank of England Independence” – is in a faltering state and the housing market is threatened by a ‘correction’ (euphemism for crash) – whilst the Labour Government continues to excessively tax hard-working families and levy exorbitant council taxes on pensioners; disincentivises entrepreneurship and inward investment by choking off commerce through its business taxes; and has a tax and benefits system that does not make work pay.  Shame. 

10. And, finally, social breakdown and gun crime – so tragically highlighted by the brutal murder of an 11-year-old boy in Liverpool – with feral youths running wild on our streets.  The moral and ethical collapse of the society of a country once as proud of its values as ours is the biggest indictment of ten years of New Labour.  Shame.
    

But according to the YouGov poll, the electorate is sleepwalking its way to disaster.  Is the electorate really ready to vote in Labour for more of the same as is highlighted in the above 10 points?  Has collective madness descended upon the nation?  We hope that it will not take too long for the electorate to see who Brown really is.  But we dearly hope that the British people does not sleepwalk its way into disaster in a sudden snap poll.

4,429 more jobless people in Birmingham since 2001

Due to earlier problems with the change in the method used to calculate Unemployment Rates by the House of Commons Library, the following table represents the increase in unemployment in the city of Birmingham between October 2001 and July 2007.

The table shows that, across the city of Birmingham, a net total of 4,429 more people (15% increase on 2001) – 2,817 men (12% increase) and 1,612 (24% increase) women – more were unemployed in 2007 compared to 2001. 

In particular, the worst affected parliamentary constituencies were Birmingham Erdington (32% increase on the 2001 figure), Hodge Hill (28%) and Yardley (28%). 

Two other wards with very high unemployment numbers, Ladywood and Sparkbrook & Small Heath, saw unemployment increasing by 720 and 630 people respectively.  Although these are high figures, they represented an 11% and 13% increase respectively.

 

Source: House of Commons Library, 2001, 2007 

So what more does this tell us about the state of the Labour market in a city like Birmingham under a Labour Government?  It tells us that they are failing in what they promised.  Not only is the Government not getting people ‘from welfare to work’, more people are ending up unemployed.  The resulting welfare dependency, and worklessness (as discussed in an earlier post), are stoking up social breakdown in these areas.

This is a depressing picture that is evident in many other parts of the UK. 

In a future post we will attempt to unearth data relating to Incapacity Benefit, economic inactivity and other forms of “hidden unemployment”

Posted by Mountjoy 16.21pm

More unemployment woes

The earlier post with this title has been withdrawn due to changes in the way in which the unemployment rate is calculated by the House of Commons (see the helpful comment below).  A revised analysis will be posted in the next few days.

Unemployment is also hidden under Labour, as the Government encourages long-term unemployed people to go onto Incapacity Benefit in order to massage the unemployment figures.  There is also an alarming number of young people who are Not in Employment, Education or Training (NEETs). 

The Daily Mail reveals today from an Office of National Statistics report that:

• 4,348,000 people of working age in ‘workless’ households, an increase of 181,000 since last year.

The report also reveals that 16.8% of households in the West Midlands are workless, compared to 23.9% in inner London and 19% in Wales. 

Posted by Mountjoy 11.26am

Labour’s unemployment shame: work should pay

The example of Birmingham

The Labour Government has presided over a shameful increase in unemployment in our cities.  This has been well documented in the press, with London Boroughs having relatively high unemployment rates, despite London being the powerhouse of the UK economy and a global financial hub. 

On The Stirrer, Adrian Goldberg (who also has a column in the Birmingham Post) highlights the chronic unemployment in Birmingham that has emerged under Labour (also discussed by the Waendel Journal).  This is based upon a House of Commons research paper on unemployment by constituency (the first such analysis we’re aware of).  The following table makes difficult reading:-

Residence based unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted), July 2007

Source: House of Commons, ’Unemployment by constituency’, Research Report 07/66, 15 August 2007 

Birmingham has had its difficulties in the past, with large-scale closures of companies in industries that were battered by global competition, and yet – due to the entrepreneurial spirit that spawned the Industrial Revolution - Brummies have always been able to create new jobs to replace those lost.

But entrepreneurial spirit has been insufficient to protect Birmingham from unemployment under a Labour Government.  The city has seen many new firms starting up, and many new jobs created, so what has happened?  Why do three of the city’s parliamentary constituencies have the highest unemployment rates in the country? 

It is the same problem that blights parts of Manchester, Liverpool (and elsewhere in Merseyside), London, Hull, Middlesbrough, and Glasgow:

Labour’s tax and benefits system has disincentivised local people (whether white British, or from families that came to the UK as immigrants in the past) from taking jobs because they believe they are better off on benefits.  To meet these apparent labour market shortages, employers have been forced to recruit people from Eastern Europe (such as Latvia) and elsewhere in the world. 

We are not being critical of immigrants who, for understandable reasons, come to the UK to work.  However, it is a criticism of a Government that – under Gordon Brown, first as Chancellor, now as Prime Minister – has failed its people on some many different dimensions.  Our focus here is that in the UK for many people work simply doesn’t pay.

Employers still report skills shortages and skills gaps.  The latter is due to deficiencies in the educational system that leaves many school leavers unable to read or write sufficiently well to be ‘employable’ in the view of many employers.  We will discuss the UK’s skills crisis under Labour another time.

The Low Pay Commission – and, more recently, a report by the Fabian Society (hat tip: Tory Radio’s Jonathan Sheppard) - have all raised a variety of issues about pay. Polly Toynbee and other social commentators have, rightly in our view, raised the UK’s persistent inequalities (the ‘rich/poor gap’), declining social mobility, and the emergence of an ‘underclass’ since New Labour came to power in 1997.

Tragically relevant to the recent murder of 11-year-old Rhys Jones, the social breakdown that we are witnessing has very much to do with worklessness – and benefit dependency – that is blighting cities such as Liverpool, Birmingham and London.

On his blog on Monday Matthew Sinclair, responding to a comment from another blogger (Vino), argued that welfare dependency, not capitalism, has led to social breakdown.  The ‘poverty trap’ has been well documented by economists and sociologists. One of the major problems is a disincentive to work caused by the tax system.  This we highlight with findings from a report from last year.

In his 2006 CPS pamphlet, “A better way to help the low paid: US lessons for the UK tax credit system” (downloadable at www.cps.org.uk), Rupert Darwall (pp iv – v) notes that,

“UK tax credits have extremely high marginal rates of tax (of up to 70%). These create a huge fiscal barrier to the low paid being rewarded for full-time work. A single mother on earnings 25% above the minimum wage can see her after-taxand-benefit income fall to just £1.89 an hour depending on the number of hours worked per week – a little more than one third of the Minimum Wage.”

Rupert Darwall  goes on to say,

“Although tax credits give poor families more money, they also make it harder for poor families to earn more money. They are socially divisive, helping to create a stratified, twoclass Britain – one, a class of advancement and achievement; and the other, a class of dependency, passivity and social breakdown.”

It is no wonder that under Labour, we have chronically high unemployment – and no will or incentive to work – in a proudly entrepreneurial city Birmingham and that is a shame that Labour can never hide from.  More widely, it is a timebomb for our society.

Posted by Mountjoy 7.42am

Why the Brown bounce is deflating

On his blog John Redwood gives some clear reasons why Brown’s poll rating is slipping and why Brown will not go for a snap poll. I agree with this analysis, and it does not bode well for the future of the Brown Government if it is entangled in so many messes already.  Elsewhere, Ellee Seymour wonders whether Prescott’s announcement of his retirement signals an autumn general election, but we rather suspect that it is merely another Prescottian gaffe and because Brown was planning a snap poll but has now been well and truly scuppered by “events, dear boy”. 

A fascinating article by Tom Gallagher in September’s Prospect magazine (well worth reading in full) reveals the problems Labour faces in Scotland – with the rise of the SNP – and in particular he reveals that:

“Only the Labour party stands in the way of the SNP becoming the dominant force in politics, possibly for a long time. The Lib Dems are in trouble and the Conservatives are still moribund. But Labour has a sickly pallor and could even implode, as David Trimble’s Ulster Unionists did after 2000. A look at the extent to which Labour’s majorities have shrunk in those 23 single-member seats it still retains shows how serious is the malaise. This insurgency in the prime minister’s own homeland may well kill any hopes he entertained for a quick election. For he is confronted by the most resourceful and popular electoral nationalist since Charles Parnell in the 1880s. The British state he confronts now lacks the deep reserves of legitimacy which it used to break the SNP challenge of the 1970s. And Salmond probably has a few more surprises up his sleeve, which he hopes will unnerve the Westminster elite and lead to the unravelling of the union.”

If Brown’s party has a “sickly pallor” in Scotland, once its heartland, what hope is there of a snap poll? 

28/08/07 Update: We are particularly grateful to some, as always, incisive analysis by Tartan Hero who reveals that, whilst Labour appears to have picked up support according to opinion polls in the North and London, “the [Labour] party is struggling in Scotland and Wales, in the wake of the SNP’s victory in this year’s elections to Holyrood, dropping from 43% in 2005 to 36% now. That suggests Mr Brown may delay an election because he fears losing seats to the SNP.”  Wouldn’t that just be tragic?
 
First millennium: Thanks to this blog’s readers for 1,000 hits. Long may it continue!

More Labour sleaze, surprise surprise

We are not surprised to learn – from a number of sources, including Noman Tahir and the Sunday Times (hat tip: Osama Saeed who has written a fascinating article on the subject) – that Labour is embroiled in a new sleaze scandal.  An alleged front organisation, Muslim Friends of Labour, apparently gave £300,000 to the Labour Party.  According to the Sunday Times,

“Imran Khand, a Glasgow-based entrepreneur, is revealed as a leading financial backer behind Muslim Friends … As his money is paid to Muslim Friends – rather than directly to the Labour party – his identity has until now remained secret. The Electoral Commission is probing whether Labour has broken laws on the disclosure of donations by hiding the true source of its financing.  Khand is a close associate of Mohammad Sarwar, the controversial Labour MP who chairs the organisation…”

This is an unauspicious start to Gordon Brown’s premiership and Wendy Alexander’s leadership of Scottish Labour – a sleaze scandal already – but it would be worse if this alleged activity had resulted in Labour clinging on to power in Scotland.  At most, it can be said to have allowed Labour to maintain a number of seats (possibly including Glasgow Kelvin with a Labour majority of 1,207 over the SNP, or Eastwood with a majority of 891 over the Tories) that it would have lost had not been for this funding. 

We hope that the Electoral Commission comes up with more convincing findings than those of the inquiry into Cash for Peerages.

Posted by Mountjoy 11.16pm

St David’s Day

Absolutely agree with this post from Dylan-Jones Evans: Make St David’s Day a National Holiday.  Where I come from, St Patrick’s Day is, so why not St David’s Day?  Let’s see if the Labour Party in Wales has the guts to make St David’s Day a national holiday as it should be.

Posted by Mountjoy 5.55pm

Referendum or bust?

10.57am update: On his blog John Redwood exposes Miliband’s porkies on Today: and brilliantly debunks Miliband’s claims that the Constitution is ‘good for Britain’, that the Treaty is different from the Constitution and that it ‘protects our red lines’.  As usual, these claims went unchallenged on Today – where is Paxman when we need him?

7.41am update: Both Dizzy and the the Last Boy Scout discuss the rebellion of 120 MPs that is disclosed in today’s press, but the question is will Labour MPs have the guts to rebel against Brown when most didn’t dare back anyone against him in the Leadership ‘election’ that never happened?

5.18pm update: Great article on this subject on the Purple Scorpion which I missed earlier.

Whether you are for or against the European Constitution (or Treaty or whatever its current moniker is), you can hardly deny that – due to the constitutional changes it would entail – a referendum in the UK should be mandatory. 

 

The Government’s arrogance and lack of insight is pretty clear in its unwillingness to grant a referendum on the European Constitution (some of last week’s news stories, such as in Politics.co.uk, The Times, The Guardian and The Independent, are depressing in that regard).  But it is reassuring to see that the Sunday Times, as reported by EU Referendum, is calling for a referendum.   

Despite pressure from trades unions which are normally quite influential, i.e. the GMB and RMT, and respected Labour MPs (including Gisela Stuart and Gwyneth Dunwoody) the Government doesn’t seem to wish to back down.  Its (i.e. Brown’s) argument is that the ‘treaty’ is not the Constitution, and Parliament should make the decision (i.e. Labour MPs will vote they way they’re told).  

It is this breathtaking arrogance and contempt for the electorate that characterised the Blair years – it is outrageous that Brown should adopt the same approach to his own premiership, after saying that things would change.  Obviously, things have not changed one iota and the electorate will be able to make its own judgment in the ballot-box sometime in the future, whenever Brown dares call a General Election.  

If the Government really believes in the European Union and in this Constitution, then it should offer a referendum in order to strengthen the legitimacy of the European Project.  But we all know that it won’t do that because of the dirty trick played by Blair upon Brown at Blair’s final European Summit, which leaves Brown with no room for manoeuvre.   A fine start to Brown’s premiership, indeed, or another fine mess we should say.

 

Posted by Mountjoy 8.22am

New Scottish Labour leader’s husband in favour of independence

According to Tartan Hero.  What a shambles Labour in Scotland has become. 

Posted by Mountjoy 8.11am

Commenting on Blogspot and dyslexia

Nothing to do with the Labour Party

You may notice that this blog is hosted by WordPress, unlike Blogspot which seems to be the favourite provider amongst bloggers.

I’ve been doing quite a lot of commenting on other blogs lately, and I’m really struggling with the “word verification”, i.e. you enter a word like “kcollip” (no kidding – I was offended by that one) to avoid spam-robots posting comments onto blogs.  Although I’m not dyslexic myself, I know quite a few people who are dyslexic and wonder how they cope with word verification?  Does this contravene the Disability Discrimination Act?

I do have a Blogger account but does it actually eventually ‘trust’ you so you don’t have to enter word verification?

Posted by Mountjoy 4.02pm

Labour is excluding black and Asian men from the House of Commons

Two fascinating posts on Labour Home – here and here – reveal that Labour is implementing all women shortlists in the parliamentary selection in a number of London seats with significant black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) populations.  Whilst this may lead to the selection of more BAME women, which is to be welcomed, the author notes that: 

“No Black, Asian or Minority Ethnic woman has yet won an all women shortlist in a winnable Labour seat. Not one, in what 12, 13 years! NOT ONE. No business or public authority would be able to get away with a recruitment procedure that prevented BAME men from applying, without any improvement in the recruitment prospects for BAME women.” 

What is interesting too is that a number of seats with over 97% white population, such as Easington, have an open selection.  The author suggests that Labour takes the BAME vote for granted.  This must be the case since the Labour Party is effectively excluding black and Asian men from the House of Commons.  It is a disgrace which must be condemned outright.

Posted by Mountjoy 1:54pm

It is time for the Government to get a grip on teenage gun crime

Again there is the heartbreaking image of another child in a football shirt whose life has been ended violently (an image that has moved the nation, just like the earlier killing of 10-year-olds Holly and Jessica), another  family’s lives torn apart.  And yet we are no further on since last year’s murder of Kiyan Prince and that of many other teenagers across the UK.  A feature of the recent murders is that the perpetrators and the victims are both children (usually teenagers).  What is striking – and all the more tragic – about the murder of Rhys Jones is that he appears to have been caught in the crossfire.  And he was only 11. 

What is even more alarming is that Croxteth Park, where the murder took place, is a middle-class area (bordering some tough estates, including Croxteth) and one of its councillors is a Liberal Democrat.  Two recent thought-provoking posts on the subject of crime perpetrated by teenagers – one on gun crime by Iain Dale and another on yobs by Cameron Watt on Conservative Home – discuss ways of tackling these problems.  The truth is that under Labour the country has become more dangerous, especially if you are young and live in a city (particularly London); and the Government has simply not got a grip on teenage crime.

The Times recently published a factfile revealing that no fewer than 10 kids have been shot or stabbed to death this year already.  Their killers (or, in some cases, alleged killers) are frighteningly young and the young murderers (or alleged murderers) have bleak life stories often involving abusive parents, family breakdown, etc. 

The Government needs to get a grip on this menace that is blighting the UK’s cities, which is not something that is likely given the failure of a succession of lacklustre Home Secretaries (John Reid actually looked like making some progress, but didn’t last very long in the job, and Jacqui Smith could still prove herself).  But we are not holding our breath for Labour to make any progress on this issue.  That in itself is a major tragedy.

15.23 Update: An excellent article by Jock Coats argues that Government policy is responsible, and he also points to some helpful insights from Kids’ Company’s Camila Batmanghelidjh in today’s Independent. 

Posted by Mountjoy 12.54pm

 

Why it’s the stupid opinion polls, not “it’s the economy, stupid”

The Friday View

It must be one of the most clichéd and overused political quotes — and from a man with somewhat dubious morals — but Bill Clinton’s “It’s the Economy Stupid” was one of the most brilliant and most appropriate slogans ever used in an election.  And on this basis we state that Gordon Brown may be, yet again, humming the same slogan to himself.  But a relevant catch-phrase for Brown could be “It’s the Opinions Polls, stupid”.

You see, Brown is at a crossroads and it is one at which he dare not take the wrong turning.  He has several choices regarding the next General Election: go to the country in the autumn, hang on a while and try next spring, or some other undefined date in the future.  Brown dare not get the timing of the election wrong – for he knows too well the lessons of the past, i.e. how it cost Labour dearly in 1979 when Callaghan misjudged its timing.  Ironically, it is this obsession with what happened to the Labour Party in the past that may lead Brown to make a rash decision: to go to the country in the next few months.  In some respects, he is terrified of what happened to John Major and the Conservatives after the 1992 General Election.  Some facts, though, need to be borne in mind:- 

• There appears, on paper, to be a strong chance of Labour winning a snap General Election – opinion polls such as the Sunday Times/YouGov poll that gave Lab 42%, Con 32% and LD 14% and others published on Electoral Calculus, suggest that Labour is in with a winning chance.   
• And yet, look at the variation; several recent polls only have Labour 3 or 4 points ahead, and the margin of error is notorious, at around 3%, and even then it bears little relation to what happens on election night. 
• An average of Lab 39%, Con 32%, LD 16% translates into 379, 219 and 19 respectively (a Lab majority of 108), according to the same website. 
• But if you make your own prediction, and try Lab 35%, Con 35%, LD 20% – not far off the margin of error – the Labour majority drops to 16, and increasing the LD or Con percentages leads to a hung parliament.

The truth is that Labour has no idea what will happen if it goes to the polls; but it is convinced that it needs to, otherwise something nasty may be lurking around the corner that may wipe out the ‘Brown Bounce’.  So a Labour Government may fall because it would rather risk the opinion polls than the economy.  And, in such circumstances, the public needs to take stock, and think, how can we re-elect a Government that is rushing towards a General Election because it doesn’t have faith in its own ability to provide economic stability?

Much focus has been directed towards the international financial crisis caused by the American sub-prime market collapse.  Whilst the US Federal Reserve has slashed its lending rate to banks, the ‘independent’ Bank of England — guided by the lower inflation figures and by the impact of the international crisis — has stalled its own interest rate rises.  Meanwhile, parts of the UK economy, which would prefer lower interest rates, are being pulverised – while home repossessions are rising.  Lulled into a false sense of security by the apparent improvement in the markets, the Bank will no doubt eventually start raising interest rates again.

Meanwhile, Gordon Brown can only look on as the Bank’s tinkering undermines the UK economy, and fearful that something disastrous may happen economically, he feels the need to rush to the polls.  But what if it all goes pear-shaped? 

Let’s face it: things have gone pear-shaped already in many ways, with the burden of taxation including the social injustice of impoverished elderly people being forced to pay huge Council Tax bills for their modest (but over-priced – thank you, Gordon!) homes. 

Whilst these old people are denied decent healthcare (amply highlighted by the Purple Scorpion today) and worry about their future if they need help from social services but don’t qualify because they’re not “needy enough”. 

They worry about social services stealing their grandchildren because the wealthy couple down the road, who paid £300,000 for a similar sized house as theirs and have the same Council Tax bill, have left it too late to have children.  Crime blights their neighbourhood including gun crime, another key election battleground, and discussed today by Iain Dale.

Their grown-up children and their families cannot afford to buy in the area where they work, so they are renting, which means that their kids, if they get to keep them, would not be in the catchment area for a good school.  At the same time, these families are paying higher marginal tax rates than the wealthy couple up the road from their elderly parents.  They don’t see much value for money for their Council Tax either. 

Brown is counting on people like these to stay at home because he thinks, although they do not like his Government, they won’t vote for any of the alternatives either.  He believes if he can call a General Election at the right time, when people are apathetic enough but not scared, he could suppress turnout and win by default.  At the moment the economy is looking shaky and he worries that it may enter a crisis during a General Election campaign … or just that the opinion polls may not translate into a win for him.

Our hunch is that Brown is terrified of a snap election, so will probably leave it until sometime next year ‘to establish his credentials’, by which time the opinion polls may have turned against him – and the economy may have gone haywire.  Then what will he do?

A spring General Election is probably the most likely outcome unless the UK economy and/or the opinion polls take a nosedive.

18.55 Update: John Redwood reports that the new Scots Labour Leader, Wendy Alexander has come out in favour of tax cuts, i.e. lower corporation tax in Scotland, despite Labour nationally being opposed to tax cuts.

Posted by Mountjoy 12:04pm

No Red Ken for London Labour?

News reaches us from LibDem Voice that a recent job ad for a London Organiser for Labour has, erm, not included Ken Livingstone as one of the people that the Organiser would work with.

Hmm, I wonder if it is because (a) they’re embarrassed by some of the things that Red Ken’s done, (b) automatically forget to include him as he’s a bit too lefty to really be Labour (the ‘believability factor’); and (c) realise that they are likely to be beaten in the London mayoral election so can’t be bothered?

Remember this? (Thanks to http://www.youtube.com/pmaz35 for this clip)

And thanks Jon Cruddas (we kid you not!) for that below, which indicates why Gordon Brown probably isn’t really that keen on Ken.  Well, he won’t have that long to put up with him – only until next May.

(I believe Labour hackers are messing with this site as I’ve had real problems with this Post this morning! as experienced also recently by Tapestry.  Videos may sometimes not work due to YouTube site maintenance like this morning, but if you double-click you should be able to watch them.)

Posted by Mountjoy 7.55am